The accuracy of prediction of water inflow of shaft is of much importance for the safety and high effective of shaft boring. “Large well method” is often used previously to predicate the water inflow of shaft, of which the result is of much difference with the reality. The reason is that the theoretical basis of “large well method” lies in Dupuit formula which requires a constant hydraulic head as boundary conditions and a steady flow as the flow pattern. However, many aquifers in coal-bearing strata can’t meet the requirement of Dupuit formula. A case study of the vertical air-return shaft in Huanghaojie coal mine was taken, method of transient water inflow from partially penetrating well in confined aquifer was adopted to predicate water inflow of shaft after a comprehensive comparative analysis of the practical hydrological conditions of shaft, which is of large diameter, poor recharge condition and partially penetrating. The prediction results show that the water inflow is big at initial stage, which is 131.98 m3/h，and declines approximately 61% rapidly, which is 51.66 m3/h one day later, then decreases slowly, and finally tends to be stable. The prediction value is close to the quantity of drainage water from the dewatering well during the last few months. This study provides references for the water inflow prediction of vertical shaft or coal mine pit in similar hydrological conditions.