基于Gauss-Legendre公式改进的煤炭产量灰色预测模型研究

doi:10.11799/ce201404031

煤炭工程 ›› 2014, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (4): 90-92.doi: 10.11799/ce201404031

基于Gauss-Legendre公式改进的煤炭产量灰色预测模型研究

罗迪¹,²,马新³

1.
2. 中煤科工集团重庆研究院
3. 西南石油大学

收稿日期:2013-03-05 修回日期:2013-04-19 出版日期:2014-04-11 发布日期:2014-04-10
通讯作者: 马新 E-mail:cauchy7203@gmail.com
基金资助:
油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室开放基金项目

Research on the Improved Gray Prediction Model for Coal Production Based on Gauss-Legendre Formula

Received:2013-03-05 Revised:2013-04-19 Online:2014-04-11 Published:2014-04-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于GM(1,1)背景值构造方法，提出了一种基于 Gauss-Legendre公式的灰色预测模型改进的方法，并以此推导了基于两点Gauss-Legendre公式改进的GM(1,1)模型。对比了改进后的GM(1,1)模型与传统GM(1,1)模型的代数精度，同时采用我国2003年－2011年的原煤总产量数据进行了拟合，并与传统GM(1,1)模型和基于连分法改进的GM(1,1)模型的预测数据进行了对比，从理论和实例两个方面验证了该模型具有更高的精度。

关键词: GM(1,1)模型, 背景值, Gauss-Legendre公式, 煤炭产量预测

Abstract:

Abstract This paper comes up with a method to improve the Grey Prediction Model based on the structure method of background value in Grey System GM(1,1) Model, figuring out the improved GM(1,1) model based on the Gauss-Legendre Formula. And also this paper compares the algebraic accuracy of the improved GM(1,1) model to the traditional GM(1,1) model. Meanwhile, the authors do the fitting work by using the data for China’s Total Coal Production from 2003 to 2011. The authors also compare the fitting results of the improved model to the results of the traditional model and the results model improved by the continued fraction. It is approved that the improved model has a higher precision both in theory and in practice.

Key words: GM(1,1) Model, Background value, Gauss-Legendre Formula, Coal Production Prediction