煤炭工程 ›› 2019, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (7): 173-177.doi: 10.11799/ce2019070038

• 工程管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

世界主要国家能源消费碳排放脱钩及驱动因素研究

杨英明,孙健东   

  1. 国家能源集团;清华大学热能工程系
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-10 修回日期:2018-09-21 出版日期:2019-07-20 发布日期:2020-05-09
  • 通讯作者: 杨英明 E-mail:yangym1988@163.com

Carbon Emission Decoupling and Drivers of Energy Consumption in Major Countries

  • Received:2018-08-10 Revised:2018-09-21 Online:2019-07-20 Published:2020-05-09

摘要: 利用碳排放Tapio脱钩弹性分解模型对世界主要国家碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系进行研究,探讨不同阶段脱钩关系特征及主要驱动因素的演变历程。研究表明:中国碳排放与GDP脱钩状态整体为弱脱钩,2014年开始,中国碳排放出现负增长,脱钩状态呈强脱钩。美国脱钩状态整体呈较为理想的弱脱钩,2006年以后美国碳排放实现负增长,碳排放与GDP强脱钩,这主要归功于美国能源结构优化升级。印度脱钩状态较为恶化。日本脱钩状态整体呈弱脱钩。在驱动因素研究过程中发现,能源强度和经济增长效应是影响中国、美国、印度和日本碳排放与GDP脱钩的主要因素,除此之外,印度碳排放还受人口效应的影响较大,能源结构效应对日本的碳排放与GDP脱钩影响较大。

关键词: 世界能源消费, 碳排放, 经济增长, 脱钩, 驱动因素

Abstract: Abstract: The relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in major countries of the world is studied with carbon emission Tapio decoupling elastic decomposition model. The characteristics of decoupling at different stages and the evolution of major drivers are discussed. The results indicate that carbon emissions and GDP decoupling of China are generally weak decoupling. Since 2014, China’s carbon emissions have experienced negative growth, and the decoupling state has been strongly decoupled. The overall decoupling state of the US is ideally weak decoupling. The US carbon emissions achieved negative growth, and carbon emissions were strongly decoupled from GDP after 2006 due to the optimization and upgrading of energy structure. The decoupling state in India is worse and Japan's decoupling state is weakly decoupled. Research of driving factors indicate that energy intensity and economic growth effects are the main factors affecting the decoupling of carbon emissions from GDP in China, the United States, India and Japan. In addition, India's carbon emissions are also greatly affected by the population effect, and the energy structure effect has a greater impact on Japan's carbon emissions and GDP decoupling.