煤炭工程 ›› 2021, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (5): 193-196.doi: 10.11799/ce202105036

• 工程管理 • 上一篇    

“十四五”期间我国煤炭供需趋势分析

孙超,姜琳,袁广玉   

  1. 国家安全生产监督管理总局信息研究院
  • 收稿日期:2020-08-24 修回日期:2020-12-01 出版日期:2021-05-20 发布日期:2021-05-17
  • 通讯作者: 孙超 E-mail:59791416@qq.com

Analysis on the trend of coal supply and demand in China in the 14th Five-Year Plan

  • Received:2020-08-24 Revised:2020-12-01 Online:2021-05-20 Published:2021-05-17

摘要: 为了分析“十四五”期间我国煤炭供需趋势,在结合煤炭供需量数据样本量小的特征之上,利用相关向量机(RVM)算法,构建了基于RVM的煤炭供需预测模型,对我国“十四五”期间的煤炭供需量进行了预测。研究结果表明,“十四五”期间我国煤炭产量及消费量仍处于稳步上升阶段,煤矿企业安全生产仍是“十四五”期间的主抓问题,并从政府监管、企业风险防控及矿山智能化建设三个方面提出了相关建议。

关键词: “十四五”, 煤炭供需量, 相关向量机, 矿山智能化

Abstract: Coal occupies an important position in China's energy structure and plays an important role in economic development. In order to analyze the trend of coal supply and demand in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, combining the characteristics of small samples of coal supply and demand data, and using the relevance vector machine (RVM) algorithm, a coal supply and demand prediction model based on RVM was constructed. The coal supply and demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period has been forecasted. The research results show that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's coal production and consumption are still steadily increasing. Coal mine safety production is still the main issue during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. And relevant suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of government supervision, enterprise risk control and coal mine intelligent construction.