煤炭工程 ›› 2025, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (6): 142-149.doi: 10. 11799/ ce202506018

• 研究探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

2013—2023年中国较大以上煤矿事故时空特征与致因分析

周天墨   

  1. 应急管理部信息研究院 信息技术研究所,北京 100029

  • 收稿日期:2024-08-29 修回日期:2024-11-07 出版日期:2025-06-11 发布日期:2025-07-15
  • 通讯作者: 周天墨 E-mail:15810471896@163.com

Spatio-temporal characteristics and causal factors of major and more severe coal mine accidents in China from 2013 to 2023

  • Received:2024-08-29 Revised:2024-11-07 Online:2025-06-11 Published:2025-07-15

摘要:

为了掌握较大以上煤矿事故的时空特征与致因情况,助力防范煤矿重特大事故,采用集中指数与空间分析方法对2013—2023年中国较大以上煤矿事故展开分析,结果表明:2013—2019年事故起数明显下降,2020年起事故起数稳定但死亡人数和直接经济损失逐年增长。瓦斯事故明显好转,顶板事故增加,水害事故稳定但经济损失大且对地方国有煤矿影响大。②事发月份分为4个阶段且离散程度不同,10—12月生产安全问题最为突出。事故分布具有空间关联性,在东北-中部-西南方向形成三个高值聚簇,重心路径表现为东北-西南交替移动。③违法违规组织生产是历年事故主因,违规操作问题得以好转但支护不到位凸显,且不同事故类型的主要致因各异。2013—2017年间接原因以企业管理能力和技术管理不到位为主,2018—2023年为企业管理松懈与员工专业素养不足。④产煤省普遍存在迟报瞒报情况且公职人员参与呈增长趋势,当事故主因来自于企业管理层时更易发生迟报瞒报。

关键词:

煤矿事故 , 时空特征 , 事故致因 , 空间自相关 , 重心迁移模型 , 迟报瞒报

Abstract:

A comprehensive understanding of the spatio-temporal characteristics and causal factors associated with major and above coal mine accidents is of significant practical importance in the prevention of such incidents. This paper employs a concentration index and spatial analysis method to examine major and above coal mine accidents in China between 2013 and 2023. The findings indicate that: (1) The number of accidents decreased significantly from 2013 to 2019, and the number of accidents stabilized from 2020 onwards. However, the number of fatalities and direct economic losses increased year by year. There has been a notable improvement in the incidence of gas accidents, while the number of roof accidents has increased. In contrast, water accidents have remained relatively stable, although they have resulted in significant economic losses and have had a considerable impact on local state-owned coal mines. (2) The month of the accident is divided into four phases, each characterized by a distinct level of discretization. The period from October to December was found to have the highest concentration of accidents. The distribution of accidents exhibited a spatial correlation, forming three clusters of high values in a northeast-central-southwest direction. The center of gravity path demonstrated a pattern of alternating northeast-southwest movements. (3) The primary cause of accidents in recent years has been the illegal organization of production. While the issue of illegal operations has been addressed, the problem of inadequate support persists, and the underlying causes of different types of accidents vary. The indirect reasons from 2013 to 2017 were mainly due to inadequate enterprise management capabilities and technical management, whereas in the period between 2018 and 2023, they were predominantly slack corporate management and inadequate employee professionalism. (4) Late reporting and concealment are prevalent in coal-producing provinces, and the involvement of public officials is on the rise. Late reporting and concealment are more likely to occur when the primary cause of accidents originates from the management of enterprises.

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