煤炭工程 ›› 2026, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (6): 170-178.doi: 10.11799/ce202606022

• 研究探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

GRA-GT组合赋权模型在煤矿突水危险性评价中的应用

赵 益,刘永立,董如国,秦 峥,张 焦   

  1. 1. 黑龙江科技大学 安全工程学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150022

    2. 中国中煤能源股份有限公司 海南分公司,海南 海口 570311

    3. 黑龙江科技大学 矿业工程学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150022

  • 收稿日期:2025-07-02 修回日期:2025-08-14 出版日期:2026-06-15 发布日期:2026-06-24
  • 通讯作者: 赵益 E-mail:zhaoyi6202025@163.com

Application of GRA-GT combined weighting model in coal mine water inrush risk assessment

  • Received:2025-07-02 Revised:2025-08-14 Online:2026-06-15 Published:2026-06-24

摘要:

为有效预测矿井水害严重程度、提升煤矿突水危险性评价的科学性与实用性,提出一种基于灰色关联分析(GRA)与博弈论(GT)的组合赋权评价模型(GRA-GT),利用灰色关联分析量化底板含水层水压、单位涌水量、钻孔取芯率、隔水层等效厚度、矿压破坏带下脆性岩厚度、断层分维值、褶皱变形系数、陷落柱相对分布密度等8项指标与煤矿突水危险性的关联程度,识别关键影响因素;采用博弈论优化层次分析法(AHP)确定的主观权重与CRITIC 法确定的客观权重,求解主客观权重的最优线性组合,构建组合赋权评价模型;并以平朔井工三矿4条巷道为评价对象,应用该模型开展实例验算。实例结果表明,研究区内巷道D突水危险性最高,巷道A风险次之,巷道B突水风险最低。该模型有效平衡了主客观权重的分配矛盾,评价结果可量化且与工程实际吻合,验证了其良好的工程适用性,可为煤矿突水危险性的动态分级管理提供兼具理论严谨性与工程实用性的评价框架。

关键词:

煤矿突水, 灰色关联分析, 层次分析法, CRITIC法, 博弈论, 水害防治

Abstract:

To effectively predict the severity of mine water hazards and enhance coal mine water disaster prevention, a GRA-GT combination weighting evaluation model was proposed based on Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) and Game Theory (GT). This model employs GRA to quantify the relational degree between the risk of coal mine water inrush and key controlling factors, including aquifer water pressure, specific water yield, core recovery ratio, equivalent thickness of the aquiclude, thickness of brittle rock beneath the mining-induced fractured zone, fault fractal dimension, fold deformation coefficient, and density of collapse column distribution. Game Theory was then applied to optimize the subjective weights derived from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the objective weights obtained from the CRITIC method, constructing an optimal combination weight set. The model was applied to evaluate Roadway A, Roadway B, Roadway C, and Roadway D in Pingshuo Mine No.3. The evaluation results indicated that Roadway D had the highest water inrush risk, followed by Roadway A, while Roadway B exhibited the lowest risk. The model effectively balances subjective and objective weights, provides quantifiable and intuitive evaluation results, and demonstrates strong engineering applicability. It offers a dynamic evaluation framework integrating theoretical rigor with practical applicability for the graded management of coal mine water inrush risks.

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