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Coal Engineering ›› 2026, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (5): 218-226.doi: 10.11799/ce202605027

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Safety assessment of coal supply and demand in Guizhou Province based on the AHP-EWM model #br#

  

  • Received:2025-07-19 Revised:2025-11-03 Online:2026-05-15 Published:2026-05-27

Abstract:

Abstract: The safety evaluation of coal supply and demand can analyze the dynamic relationship between supply security and demand fluctuations, enhance the risk prevention and control capabilities of resource-based cities, and ensure the stable operation of the energy supply system. To establish a regional safety evaluation system for the coordinated coal supply and demand in Guizhou Province, the AHP-entropy weight method (EWM) is adopted to calculate the comprehensive weights of the evaluation factors and determine the main control factors for safety evaluation. Thirteen indicators are selected from the aspects of supply capacity, reserve system, transportation and sales channels, and government guarantee measures. A coal supply and demand safety evaluation model with the logical framework of "multi-dimensional indicator selection - combined weight calculation - spatial zoning - measure response" is designed. The K-Means clustering algorithm is used to determine the safety distribution from the city of Bijie (point) to the whole province (area) in Guizhou Province. The research results show that the main control factors affecting the supply and demand in the resource output city of Bijie are the proven coal reserves, production level and railway shipment volume, with weight proportions of 20.68%, 15.36% and 11.24% respectively. The "large supply, small demand" industrial structure and the increase in clean energy consumption in Bijie have effectively reduced the dependence on coal demand, and the coal supply and demand safety is high. Based on the comprehensive score of the indicators' weights of each city (prefecture) in Guizhou Province, three types of safety areas are classified, and differentiated response measures are proposed, providing a reference for the supply and demand safety assessment of resource-based cities.

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