Abstract: In order to solve the problem of accurate prediction of ground dynamic subsidence in the dynamic control of subsidence land, this paper adopts the method of combining theoretical analysis with field measurement. Starting from the analysis of the dynamic subsidence process of ground points, the variation law of subsidence, subsidence velocity and subsidence acceleration in the dynamic subsidence process of ground points is clarified. On this basis, a dynamic subsidence prediction model based on Hill function is established, which conforms to the evolution process of dynamic subsidence of ground points. The model is verified by the measured data of surface subsidence in 5316 working face of jining No.3 Coal Mine, 3307 working face of Dongtan Coal Mine and CG1301 working face of Yineng Coal Mine. The results show that the relative error between the predicted value and the measured value is controlled within 3%, indicating that this model can well realize the dynamic subsidence prediction of the ground point.