关键词: 顶板事故, 风险分析, 改进层次分析法, 突变理论

Abstract: In view of the many influencing factors of coal mine roof accidents in China, the occurrence process is complex and diverse, a risk analysis model of coal mine roof accidents is proposed, which combines improved analytic hierarchy process and catastrophe theory. According to the actual situation of the analyzed coal mine, the subjective factor importance is greater than the objective factor importance, the system mutation membership is 0.79, and the safety level is general. The safety investment in subjective factors is in place and the safety investment in objective factors is insufficient in this coal mine, which leads to sudden changes in the risk of roof accidents. This conforms to the actual situation of this coal mine, and shows that the method based on improved analytic hierarchy process - catastrophe theory can guide the risk analysis of roof accidents in coal mine.