关键词: 突水力学模型, 贝叶斯判别, 先验概率, 水源识别

Abstract: The identification of mine water inrush water source plays an important guiding role in mine water disaster prevention and emergency rescue. In order to solve the problem that the current water source identification only considers a few factors such as mine water chemical characteristics and water level observation, and lacks the support of mine water inrush mechanics. Taking the 1021 middle working face of Linxi Coal Mine as an example, a method for identifying the source of mine water influx based on the coupling of hydraulics and hydrochemistry is proposed. The method firstly solves the critical water-proof coal-rock column thickness L_v of water inrush from different water sources or channels at the water inrush point according to the mine hydraulic model of poorly sealed boreholes, faults, old gobs, floor and other mines. Secondly, the quantitative relationship between L_v and the thickness L_e of the actual water-resistant coal-rock column is compared to determine the prior probability of water inrush from different water sources. Then, with the prior probability as a link, a Bayesian discriminant analysis is used to establish a mine water inrush water source identification model based on the coupling of hydraulics and hydrochemistry. Finally, the model is used to verify and identify the water source of the water inflow point in the 1021 mining face. The research results show that because the hydrochemical characteristics of the Ⅲ aquifer and the Ⅳ aquifer are similar, the establishment of a single hydrochemical identification model will misjudge the water source of the inflow point as the water of the Ⅲ aquifer. The water source identification model based on the coupling of hydraulics and hydrochemistry established in this paper can accurately identify that the water source at the water inflow point belongs to the fourth aquifer water.