关键词: 涌水来源, Bayes模型, 混合模型, 比例判别, 质量平衡理论

Abstract: Rapid and effective identification of mine inrush water sources is a prerequisite for mine water control measures development, while the accurate quantification of different sources of water influx, and accordingly formulate targeted prevention and control measures is the key to ensure the safe production of the mine. Therefore, using Yangcun coal mine as a research example, and based on the analysis of mine water filling source, 56 study samples selected in four major recharge aquifers, 52 typical samples were retained after removing abnormal samples using Piper's trilinear plot. Selection of six conventional ions as discriminators which are HCO3-、SO42-、Cl-、Na++K+、Mg2+ and Ca2+, and Bayes stepwise discriminant analysis method in multivariate statistics was used to establish the discriminant model of mine water inrush source. The accuracy of Bayes discriminant model for the overall classification of samples reached 91.06 %. It lays a foundation for effective identification the proportion of mixed water source composition. Afterwards, a mixing model was developed with the "M3" mass balance theory and the composition of the mine water influx was determined. The results show that: restricted by the characteristics and influence degree of the water-filled aquifer, the sandstone water content in the early mine water inrush composition is higher, specifically, the Ordovician limestone water accounts for 15.2 %, the Shixia limestone water accounts for 20.68 %, the No.3 coal roof sandstone water accounts for 48.28 %, and the No.13-14 limestone water accounts for 15.85 %. With the passage of time, the proportion of 13-14 ash water and Ordovician ash water gradually increased, among which Ordovician ash water accounted for 23.65 %, 10 ash water accounted for 10.8 %, 3 coal roof sandstone water accounted for 26.73 %, 13-14 ash water was 38.83 %. This is consistent with the situation that the No.3 coal in the fifth mining area is mainly mined in the early stage of the mine, and the lower coal group is gradually mined in the later stage, indicating that the method is more in line with the actual production. On the whole, the Ordovician limestone water accounts for 17.5 %, the Shixia limestone water accounts for 19.86 %, the No.3 coal roof sandstone water accounts for 36.43 %, and the No.13-14 limestone water accounts for 26.21 %. It shows that the current mine inrush water is dominated by the roof sandstone water in the No.3 mining area and the No.13-14 limestone water in the lower group of mining area, which provides a basis for the future development of water control work in the mine.