煤炭工程 ›› 2026, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (5): 166-174.doi: 10.11799/ce202605021

• 研究探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于系统动力学的煤矿采掘智能化改造综合效益研究

周耀洲   

  1. 1. 太原理工大学 矿业工程学院,山西 太原 030024

    2. 中煤科工集团智能矿山有限公司,山西 太原 030024

  • 收稿日期:2025-05-26 修回日期:2025-11-05 出版日期:2026-05-15 发布日期:2026-05-27
  • 通讯作者: 周耀洲 E-mail:znks_zyz@163.com

Research on comprehensive benefits of intelligent transformation of coal mine excavation and mining systems based on system dynamics #br#

  • Received:2025-05-26 Revised:2025-11-05 Online:2026-05-15 Published:2026-05-27

摘要:

为系统评估煤矿采掘系统智能化改造的综合效益,文章从经济、安全与环境三个维度出发,构建了智能化改造综合效益影响因素评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定指标权重。在此基础上,运用流率基本入树建模法建立系统动力学模型,通过标准化处理消除多效益指标间的量纲差异,结合神东矿区某矿实际改造数据验证模型。进一步借助因果链追踪与敏感性分析识别智能化改造对综合效益的作用路径,采用蒙特卡洛模拟量化其影响程度,并引入正交试验法评估系统鲁棒性。研究结果表明:智能化改造通过经济、安全与环境三条关键路径显著提升采掘系统综合效益;即使在基础失误率、煤炭价格与吨煤能耗等因素波动下,其综合效益仍优于未改造系统,且随改造程度加深,效益增长趋势更为显著,体现出良好的鲁棒性。

关键词:

采掘智能化改造, 采掘综合效益, 系统动力学, 智能化改造路径, 智能化改造影响

Abstract:

To comprehensively evaluate the benefits of intelligent transformation of coal mining and excavation systems, this paper constructs an index system of influencing factors of intelligent transformation benefits from three dimensions: economy, safety and environment, and determines the index weights by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, a system dynamics model is established by using the basic inflow tree method, and the dimensional differences among multiple benefit indicators are eliminated through standardization processing. The model is verified with the actual transformation data of Shendong mining area, and the error rate is less than 10%. Further, the causal chain tracking and sensitivity analysis are used to identify the action paths of intelligent transformation on benefits, and the Monte Carlo simulation is adopted to quantify its impact degree. The orthogonal test method is introduced to evaluate the robustness of the system. The research results show that intelligent transformation significantly improves the comprehensive benefits of the mining and excavation system through three key paths: economy, safety and environment. Even under the fluctuations of basic failure rate, coal price and energy consumption per ton of coal, its comprehensive benefits are still better than those of the untransformed system, and the benefit growth trend becomes more significant with the deepening of the transformation degree, demonstrating good robustness.

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