In order to solve the problem of predicting and forecasting large-area roof cutting and supports crushing disasters caused by high-level separation water inrush from the super thick aquifer in Yonglong mining area, the continuous monitoring of the water level in the aquifer and the real-time monitoring of mine pressure at the working face are adopted, and based on three examples, the paper analyzed linkage effect between water level of the aquifer and the working face rock pressure, and studied reasonable threshold value of warning index of roof cutting and supports crushing disaster in fully mechanized caving face from the major cyclic weighting interval, support working resistance, the dynamic load coefficient, the support resistance increase rate, the safety valve opening rate and the long view hole water level deceleration. Research indicators that the reasonable thresholds of early warning indicators for cut-top and support-supporting disasters in fully mechanized caving face are studied. The research shows that: the water level of aquifers- the major cyclic weighting -water inrush and supports crushing has significant sequence and linkage, and the square position is high-prone area of water inrush and supports crushing. In comparison with normal pressure, the increase rate of supports pressure increased by 305.8% during the major cyclic weighting, and the working resistance, dynamic load coefficient and the opening rate of safety valve all increased in different proportions, besides, the water level deceleration rate of the aquifer also continued to increase. Divided the precursory and real-time warning indicators, and proposed a two-stage warning method and a two-stage warning-prevention mechanism. The correctness and applicability of the warning indicators and methods are verified by field application. The research results have reference value for the early warning and prevention of water hazard and roof cutting and supports crushing disasters such as Yonglong and Binchang mining district in Shanxi.