煤炭工程 ›› 2026, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (4): 166-175.doi: 10.11799/ce202604020

• 研究探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于机器学习的煤层瓦斯含量预测及SHAP可解释性影响因素研究

张永涛,陈 文,王小军,高丁丁,杨 飞,陈 旭,高成登   

  1. 1. 陕西彬长矿业集团有限公司 大佛寺煤矿,陕西 咸阳 712000

    2. 西安科技大学 能源学院,陕西 西安 710054



  • 收稿日期:2025-01-16 修回日期:2025-04-22 出版日期:2026-04-10 发布日期:2026-05-12
  • 通讯作者: 张永涛 E-mail:dfszyt@163.com

Prediction of coal seam gas content based on machine learning algorithms and the influencing factors of SHAP interpretability #br#

  • Received:2025-01-16 Revised:2025-04-22 Online:2026-04-10 Published:2026-05-12
  • Contact: yongtao -zhang E-mail:dfszyt@163.com

摘要:

为准确掌握煤层瓦斯含量及其影响因素,破解传统预测方法的局限性,本文以彬长矿区煤层瓦斯含量实测数据为基础,采用弹性网络(Elastic Net)、支持向量回归(SVR)、梯度提升决策树(GBDT)及极端梯度提升树(XGBoost4种机器学习算法,构建煤层瓦斯含量预测模型; 同时引入SHAP可解释性算法, 验证机器学习模型的预测合理性,揭示输入特征对预测结果的影响机制,识别煤层瓦斯含量的主要影响因素。结果表明:4种预测模型中,GBDT模型的预测性能最优,其在测试集上的决定系数(R2)可达0.9956,具备良好的拟合精度与泛化能力;结合模型内置特征重要性与SHAP全局特征重要性分析发现,砂泥岩比和泥岩厚度是影响煤层瓦斯含量的核心因素,挥发分影响次之,埋深与基岩厚度的影响最小;GBDTSHAP算法结合可有效捕捉各影响因素间的交互作用,且不同特征对预测结果的影响存在明显依赖性,其中砂泥岩比与泥岩厚度的交互作用突出,泥岩厚度与挥发分也存在明显的交互影响。基于GBDTSHAP可解释性方法构建的煤层瓦斯含量预测模型兼具高精度与可解释性,能够有效识别瓦斯含量的关键控制因素及其交互关系,为矿井瓦斯含量精准预测与瓦斯灾害防治提供了新思路。

Abstract:

Coalbed methane content is one of the key parameters for evaluating the gas hazard levels in mines. Accurately understanding the coalbed methane content and its influencing factors is of critical importance for effective gas management and disaster prevention in mining operations. This study employs four machine learning algorithms—Elastic Net, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—to establish a predictive model for coalbed methane content. Additionally, the SHAP model is used to explain the feasibility of the machine learning algorithms, reveal the impact of input variables on output variables, and identify the main influencing factors of coalbed methane content. The results show that the GBDT model achieves the highest fitting accuracy (R2 =0.9956) on the prediction set, demonstrating the best performance. Feature importance analysis of the model and global feature importance analysis using SHAP reveal that the ratio of sandstone to mudstone and mudstone thickness are the most significant factors affecting the prediction of coalbed methane content, followed by volatile matter. In contrast, coal seam thickness, bedrock thickness, and ash yield have the least impact on the prediction. GBDT combined with SHAP algorithm effectively obtained the interaction between various factors in the prediction process of coal seam gas content. There is a clear dependence between different features, with the strongest interaction between sandstone and mudstone being the thickness of mudstone. The strongest interaction with the thickness of mudstone is the volatile matter.

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