煤炭工程 ›› 2026, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (4): 88-95.doi: 10.11799/ce202604012

• 生产技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于数理统计与深度学习的顶板来压“双级”预测方法及应用

郭奋超,邸春雷,郑旭鹤,甄恩泽,刘长月,刘文波,王亚军,李元泽   

  1. 1.陕煤集团神木红柳林矿业有限公司,陕西 榆林 719000

    2.黄山学院 建筑工程学院,安徽 黄山 245021

    3.北京科技大学 土木与资源工程学院,北京 100083

    4.西安华创马科智能控制系统有限公司,陕西 西安 710117

  • 收稿日期:2025-04-07 修回日期:2025-07-03 出版日期:2026-04-10 发布日期:2026-05-12
  • 通讯作者: 甄恩泽 E-mail:zhenenze0@163.com

A dual-level prediction method for roof weighting based on mathematical statistics and deep learning and its application

  • Received:2025-04-07 Revised:2025-07-03 Online:2026-04-10 Published:2026-05-12

摘要:

为提升综采工作面顶板来压预测精度,进一步提高矿井安全、高效、智能化开采水平,以陕煤红柳林煤矿大采高综采工作面为研究背景,结合该矿综采工作面液压支架实测监测数据,分析开采期间顶板矿压显现特征及覆岩运移破坏规律,基于支架与顶板相互作用关系,采用数理统计与深度学习算法对时序矿压数据进行分析。首先,根据支架压力变化特征,将支架工作状态划分为降阻阶段、缓慢增阻阶段和快速增阻阶段;其次,提出基于“压力拱”的顶板来压判定指标,并在此基础上建立基于LSTM网络的矿压预测模型,实现工作面未来压力变化趋势的精准预测;最后,以红柳林煤矿15219综采工作面为工程实例,对周期来压预测结果进行分段统计与误差分析,对比两种算法的预测效果。结果表明:深度学习模型来压预测精度可达90%,受地质条件等外部因素干扰更小,但预警时长较短,仅1~2h;传统数理统计模型预测周期更长,但易受开采条件影响。

关键词:

综采工作面, 支架阻力, 来压预测, LSTM网络, 压力拱, 智能预警

Abstract:

Abstract: This paper takes the characteristics of roof pressure behavior during mining at the fully mechanized mining face of Shaanxi Coal Group Shenmu Hongliulin Mining Co., Ltd. as the research background. By analyzing the movement and failure laws of overlying rocks in the fully mechanized mining face with large mining height, combined with the interaction relationship between supports and roof, mathematical statistics and deep learning algorithms are used to analyze the collected time-series mine pressure data, and the forecast and early warning of roof pressure in the fully mechanized mining face are realized. Firstly, by analyzing the support pressure data of the fully mechanized working face, the support pressure working stage is divided into the resistance reduction stage, the slow resistance increase stage, and the rapid resistance increase stage; secondly, the pressure determination index of the working face "pressure arch" is proposed; then based on the LSTM network, a mine pressure prediction model is designed to predict the future pressure change of the working face; The periodic pressure prediction results are also divided into sections. The concentrated trend and frequency of prediction errors are analyzed through on-site application cases, and the prediction results of different algorithms are compared. The results show that the pressure prediction model based on deep learning has a high accuracy, but the prediction time is shorter. Compared with the historical pressure prediction model, it is less affected by factors such as geological conditions. The research results can provide certain reference for the intelligent production and management of fully mechanized working faces.

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