煤炭工程 ›› 2025, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (4): 202-209.doi: 10. 11799/ ce202504028

• 研究探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于系统动力学的煤炭供应链节能减排路径分析

吴悦, 门敏刚, 何龙龙   

  1. 1. 西安科技大学机械工程学院
    2. 西安科技大学
  • 收稿日期:2024-05-21 修回日期:2024-07-23 出版日期:2025-04-10 发布日期:2025-05-28
  • 通讯作者: 吴悦 E-mail:yuewu1992@qq.com

Analysis on energy saving and emission reduction paths in the coal supply chain based on system dynamics

  • Received:2024-05-21 Revised:2024-07-23 Online:2025-04-10 Published:2025-05-28

摘要:

“双碳”背景下,如何减少碳排放、提高能源利用效率是我国工业发展现阶段面临的主要问题。为了寻求煤炭供应链的节能减排最优路径及利润最大化路径,基于系统动力学方法及原理,通过实践研究建立了煤炭供应链碳排放与供应链总利润的系统动力学模型,并进行动态仿真实验,针对性地提出了利用煤层气、煤矸石发电以及增加环保投资三种减排路径,且利用模型进行了效果检验与敏感性分析。结果表明:三种路径都可以减少碳排放量,煤矸石发电占比对碳排放量影响最大;在一定范围内提高煤层气利用率可以增加总利润,煤矸石发电占比和环保投资比例的提升都会使总利润减少。

关键词:

煤炭供应链 , 节能减排 , 系统动力学 , 敏感性分析

Abstract:

Abstract: In the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, reducing carbon emissions and improving energy efficiency are major challenges for China's industrial development at this stage. To seek the optimal path for energy saving and emission reduction as well as profit maximization in the coal supply chain, a system dynamics model of carbon emissions and total profit of the coal supply chain was established based on system dynamics methods and principles through practical research. Dynamic simulation experiments were conducted, and three emission reduction paths were proposed specifically: utilizing coalbed methane, generating electricity from coal gangue, and increasing environmental protection investment. The model was also used for effect verification and sensitivity analysis. The results show that all three paths can reduce carbon emissions, with the proportion of electricity generated from coal gangue having the greatest impact on carbon emissions. Within a certain range, increasing the utilization rate of coalbed methane can increase total profits, while an increased proportion of electricity generated from coal gangue and a higher ratio of environmental protection investment will both lead to a decrease in total profits.

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