煤炭工程 ›› 2020, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (5): 187-193.doi: 10.11799/ce202005039

• 工程管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

低碳经济视角下能源产业可持续发展与政策仿真研究

黄光球,徐聪   

  1. 西安建筑科技大学管理学院
  • 收稿日期:2019-07-01 修回日期:2019-08-20 出版日期:2020-05-15 发布日期:2020-07-23
  • 通讯作者: 徐聪 E-mail:664348063@qq.com

Sustainable Development and Policy Simulation of Energy Industry from the Perspective of Low Carbon Economy

  • Received:2019-07-01 Revised:2019-08-20 Online:2020-05-15 Published:2020-07-23

摘要: 为了考察不同的政策方案对于能源产业的影响,从能源、经济、环境、政策和社会等要素出发,基于DPSIR理论构建了低碳经济视角下能源产业发展系统仿真模型。并且以陕西省为研究对象,确定了模型参数以及主要方程。研究结果表明:目前陕西省的粗放式发展仍可以保持一定的经济增速,但是对煤炭消费有较强的依赖性,受资源约束影响明显|发展新能源产业对环境产生的改善效果最为明显,可以通过税收政策来弥补传统能源和新能源之间的成本差额,而经济政策和产业政策产生的影响较小。

关键词: 能源—经济—环境, 低碳经济, 系统动力学, 政策仿真

Abstract: In order to investigate the impact of different policy options on the energy industry, based on the energy, economic, environmental, policy and social factors, based on the DPSIR theory, a simulation model of the energy industry development system from the perspective of low carbon economy is constructed. And taking Shaanxi Province as the research object, the model parameters and main equations are determined. The research results show that the extensive development of Shaanxi Province can still maintain a certain economic growth rate, but it has strong dependence on coal consumption and is obviously affected by resource constraints. The development of new energy industry has the most obvious effect on the environment. Taxation policies can be used to compensate for the cost difference between traditional and new energy sources, while economic and industrial policies have less impact.

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