煤炭工程 ›› 2026, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (5): 218-226.doi: 10.11799/ce202605027

• 研究探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于AHP-EWM模型的贵州省煤炭供需安全性评价

张慈增,侯超博   

  1. 煤炭工业规划设计研究院有限公司, 北京 100120

  • 收稿日期:2025-07-19 修回日期:2025-11-03 出版日期:2026-05-15 发布日期:2026-05-27
  • 通讯作者: 张慈增 E-mail:157821356@qq.com

Safety assessment of coal supply and demand in Guizhou Province based on the AHP-EWM model #br#

  • Received:2025-07-19 Revised:2025-11-03 Online:2026-05-15 Published:2026-05-27

摘要:

为提升资源型城市的风险防控能力,构建适用于贵州省煤炭供需协调背景下的区域安全评价体系,从供应能力、储备体系、运输销售渠道、政府保障措施4个维度选取13项评价指标,采用层次分析法(AHP)与熵权法(EWM)组合赋权模型确定指标综合权重与主控因素,构建以“多维指标选取-组合权重计算-空间分区-措施应对”为逻辑框架的煤炭供需安全性评价模型,并结合K-Means聚类算法揭示从毕节市(点)到贵州省(面)的安全性空间分布特征。研究结果表明:毕节市影响煤炭供需安全的主控因素为煤炭探明储量、煤炭生产水平和铁路发运量,权重占比分别为20.68%15.36%11.24%;该市“大供应、小需求”的产业结构与清洁能源消费占比提升显著降低了煤炭依赖度,整体供需安全性较高。基于各市(州)综合评分,将贵州省划分为较安全、一般安全、预警三类安全区域,并提出针对性保障措施,可为西南地区资源型城市煤炭供需安全评估提供参考。

Abstract:

Abstract: The safety evaluation of coal supply and demand can analyze the dynamic relationship between supply security and demand fluctuations, enhance the risk prevention and control capabilities of resource-based cities, and ensure the stable operation of the energy supply system. To establish a regional safety evaluation system for the coordinated coal supply and demand in Guizhou Province, the AHP-entropy weight method (EWM) is adopted to calculate the comprehensive weights of the evaluation factors and determine the main control factors for safety evaluation. Thirteen indicators are selected from the aspects of supply capacity, reserve system, transportation and sales channels, and government guarantee measures. A coal supply and demand safety evaluation model with the logical framework of "multi-dimensional indicator selection - combined weight calculation - spatial zoning - measure response" is designed. The K-Means clustering algorithm is used to determine the safety distribution from the city of Bijie (point) to the whole province (area) in Guizhou Province. The research results show that the main control factors affecting the supply and demand in the resource output city of Bijie are the proven coal reserves, production level and railway shipment volume, with weight proportions of 20.68%, 15.36% and 11.24% respectively. The "large supply, small demand" industrial structure and the increase in clean energy consumption in Bijie have effectively reduced the dependence on coal demand, and the coal supply and demand safety is high. Based on the comprehensive score of the indicators' weights of each city (prefecture) in Guizhou Province, three types of safety areas are classified, and differentiated response measures are proposed, providing a reference for the supply and demand safety assessment of resource-based cities.

中图分类号: