Abstract:

Abstract This paper comes up with a method to improve the Grey Prediction Model based on the structure method of background value in Grey System GM(1,1) Model, figuring out the improved GM(1,1) model based on the Gauss-Legendre Formula. And also this paper compares the algebraic accuracy of the improved GM(1,1) model to the traditional GM(1,1) model. Meanwhile, the authors do the fitting work by using the data for China’s Total Coal Production from 2003 to 2011. The authors also compare the fitting results of the improved model to the results of the traditional model and the results model improved by the continued fraction. It is approved that the improved model has a higher precision both in theory and in practice.

Key words: GM(1,1) Model, Background value, Gauss-Legendre Formula, Coal Production Prediction