Shendong mining area is a typical shallow-buried coal seam mining area，surface deformation is very severe after coal mining, and the discontinuous deformation such as cracks is very obvious. Probability integral method is applicable to the continuous deformation of the surface, so it is necessary to discuss its applicability in Shendong mining area. Probability integral method is derived from random medium theory and probability theory, starting from this, this paper calculates the relationship coefficients of probability integral method under the fully mechanized mining conditions in Shendong mining area and the Mid-East mining area respectively, and compares them with the theoretical values of the relationship coefficients of probability integral method, so as to discuss the applicability of probability integral method under the fully mechanized mining conditions of shallow coal seams in Shendong mining area. The research results show that, compared with Mid-East mining areas, the relationship coefficient of Shendong mining area not only differs greatly from the theoretical value of the probability integral method, but also has a large degree of dispersion. This shows that the applicability of probability integral method in Shendong mining area is not as good as that in the Mid-East mining area. By analyzing the factors that affect the applicability of the probability integral method, a research method based on the key stratum theory is proposed to improve the calculation method of shallow coal seam mining subsidence.