关键词: 炼焦煤, 开发潜力, 供应, 需求, 中长期, 预测

Abstract: Coking coal is one of the important raw materials of iron and steel industry, which guarantees the development of China's iron and steel industry. Research on coking coal supply and demand has important guiding significance for the development of China's iron and steel industry. This paper studies the present situation of coking coal supply and demand, the output change and the structure of coal types in China, analyses the development potential of coking coal in major coking coal producing provinces, analyses the influence of structural reform on coking coal supply on supply side, and comprehensively considers various factors such as coking coal resource reserves, output changes and remaining service life in each province and region, the medium and long term supply of coking coal in China is forecasted. The demand of crude steel and pig iron in medium and long term is forecasted by steel consumption coefficient method of GDP, and the demand of coking coal in medium and long term is forecasted based on steel consumption demand. According to the forecast and analysis, the supply and demand of coking coal in the medium and long term in China will show a marked downward trend; from the point of view of coal classification, the supply and demand gap of coking coal and fertilizer coal in the medium and long term in China is large, and it is urgent to strengthen the protective exploitation and utilization of domestic coking coal resources.