关键词: 煤矿安全, 水害事故, 事故规律, 百万吨死亡率预测

Abstract: In view of the phenomenon that coal mine water accidents threaten the safety production of mining enterprises in China in recent years, the data on water disaster accidents from 2008 to 2021 published by the national and local mine safety supervision bureaus and the coal mine safety net were collected and analyzed. The accident data is analyzed from the perspective of water accident grade, time, space and mine scale using mathematical statistics, and the occurrence law of water accident is discussed. The impact of raw coal production on the million-ton mortality rate is analyzed, and the million-ton mortality rate forecast for 2022 and 2023 is made and according to the characteristics of the flood accident, put forward the prevention and control suggestions. The results show that relatively large and above water disaster accidents are the focus of water disaster prevention and control in coal mines. Spatially, coal mine flood accidents occur most frequently in North China, Northeast China and Southwest China. In terms of time, the water disaster accident occurs most frequently from March to April, July to August, every day from 23:00 to 1:00, from 7:00 to 9:00, from 15:00 to 17:00, and from 17:00 to 19:00 has more flood accidents. Water disasters are more common in small mines. There is a long-term inverse relationship between raw coal production and the mortality rate of one million tons. It is expected that the mortality rate of one million tons will drop to 0.041 and 0.030 in 2022 and 2023.